A Closer Look at Ryan Harvey

Saying Ryan Harvey has had an odd 2006 season, is like saying Sybil is monotonous. Harvey has put has put a schizophrenic spin on his season, posting an OPS of 585 before the all-star break, and an OPS of 873 after the break.

So, who is the real Ryan Harvey? What can we find within the numbers to indicate which output Harvey is most likely to give us?

Remarkably, Harvey's BB/K rates are identical before and after the break, with a 12/60 ratio before the break, and a 11/61 ratio after the break (although in 10 more games), so we can throw out any adjustment factor that Harvey may have had.

Probably the most important statistic is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. BABIP typically gives an indication on how fortunate (aka lucky) a player has been when putting the ball in play. The league average for the Florida State League has been around .308 for 2006. Furthermore, for players like Harvey who strike out quite often, the BABIP should always be significantly higher, as strike outs often skew a BA down, while not affecting the BABIP. So, let's look at Harvey's numbers, thanks to MinorLeagueSplits.com:

	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
April	78	14	1	0	5	6	24	0.179	0.238	0.385	0.623	0.184
May	90	15	4	0	0	6	21	0.167	0.224	0.211	0.436	0.217
June	101	26	6	1	2	1	27	0.257	0.265	0.396	0.661	0.333
July	95	29	5	0	9	2	29	0.305	0.327	0.642	0.969	0.351
August	89	30	7	0	4	7	18	0.337	0.394	0.551	0.945	0.388

As you can see, in April, Harvey's BABIP and batting average, were nearly identical. This means basically, Harvey was not only not hitting the ball much, but when he did he hit into quite poor luck. In May, Harvey's luck didn't improve much, just obtaining hits in 22% of his balls hit in play. In June, July, and August, Harvey's luck began to turn around, and were all above league average for each month.

So, which Harvey should we expect in 2007 and further into the future? Well, as usual the truth often lies in between extremes. Harvey's current line of 253/293/442 is slightly below his career minor league numbers, so most likely numbers like 260/300/490 are what you can expect from Harvey based upon his career. Harvey will still produce power, and his run production has been exceptional (100 RBIs in 117 games in 2005, 84 RBIs in 118 games in 2006), especially despite his low batting average.

Outside the numbers, scouts are saying Harvey is still struggling with the curveball. Typically a batter can get away with this in A Ball, but the AA transition is often the most difficult, so next year will be big for Harvey.

The Best Case Scenario for Harvey is a Chicago debut in late 2008, as a player like Jeff Franceour, who will never have a high OBP, but will produce runs and will play a good right field.